A lot of Zambians have asked this question: supposing we had gotten our independence from Britain in 2014 instead of 1964, would the Zambian society be better off now? In other words, if we had remained as a colony of Britain for another 50 years, would we be better off than we are now?

At independence, as Northern Rhodesia crossed over into Zambia, the economic outlook looked bright. The copper prices were high, and Zambia was getting reasonable returns from the copper mines. Soon after independence, these high copper prices meant an increase in the GDP.

A decade or so after independence several factors made the economy decline. Among these factors were the Middle East crisis — the 1973 Israel Arab War — that led to a massive increase in the price of oil, the unilateral declaration of independence (UDI) by white Southern Rhodesians and the consequent closure of the export/import route through South African ports. There were also the civil wars in Mozambique, Southern Rhodesia, South West Africa and Angola that spilled over into Zambia. Then there’s the continuing basket case that is Congo Kinshasa/Zaire/DRC. These conflicts in neighbouring countries created thousands of refugees who fled to Zambia. In addition, the Portuguese, Rhodesians and South Africans laid thousands of land mines along their borders and inside the Zambia’s borders to deter freedom fighters from entering through those routes. All these conflicts impacted negatively on Zambia’s GDP growth.

Additionally, politics also became a problem. One party rule was introduced as the ruling party then, UNIP, sought to rule forever. UNIP removed all checks and balances on the government. This led to venality and incompetence in the management of the economy.

So, there was a fall in the GDP and living standards of Zambians starting a decade or so after independence. In some sectors the decline has continued while in others there has been massive improvement.

This decline made some Zambians to yearn “for the time under colonial rule when things used to work.” Really? Are you serious?

So, if our independence from Britain had been delayed from 24^th October 1964 to 24^th October 2014, would Zambians be better off now? Before I answer, let me define the indices to be used for better off.

1. Would Zambia have a higher GDP?
2. Would Zambians have a higher GDP per capita?
3. Would Zambians have a higher living standard?
4. Would Zambians be a happier lot than they are now?

Here goes. The main problem is that many Zambians do not analyse why the colonialists seemed to run things better. In the same breath, what most black people tend to underestimate, is the sheer hatred by some sections of the white community for our race. These same whites show a complete lack of remorse for the egregious violations they have visited on us.

During colonialism, when things seemed to work, there was coercion, autocracy, and suppression of most rights of “natives.” The ones who have nostalgia about the colonial days are the ones who never suffered the humiliation and discrimination that was rampant. These are the ones who never saw how the whites lived on the other side of the diamond wire fence because of the blood, sweat, and tears of the African. The blood, sweat, and tears would have continued up to 2014. There are terms for this myopia: Adorning nostalgia filters refers to the habit of the human mind seeing the past in a more rosy light than it actually was. Survivorship bias means that some elements of the commentary are left out and what is presented ignores those things that would make the conclusion different or less rosy.

For an elite few, things would have been great, maybe even brilliant. This is because all colonialists use a layer of locals to prosecute their cause.

The British Government would have continued milking Northern Rhodesian mineral and agricultural wealth and leaving peanuts for the locals. As Northern Rhodesia, by 2014 we would have been the same socially damaged society that South Africa is now. The whites were not here to prepare us for independence. Never forget that. So, after 1964, the exploitation and the extractive agenda by the British would have continued, and deepened, and ramified.

The colour bar would have continued. The under-education and mis-education would have continued. The inferior schools for Africans would have continued. Europeans would have continued to have grade A schools with swimming pools, tennis courts, rugby grounds and cricket grounds. In the African schools, pupils would be playing nsolo, kankuluwele, and waida for physical education.

The rest of the citizens would still be facing daily humiliations. Dignity is a word that would have been removed from the Oxford English Dictionary for Native Pupils. For an African to drink clear European type beers a permit would be needed, issued by a District Commissioner on behalf of the Governor.

The land grabs from the natives by the white settlers would have continued. One world-class health system for the whites and another poorer one to ensure the Africans can get back to work quickly would have continued.

Think of all the best lands in Zambia. Those would have been reserved for the colonialists. The major tourist centres in Zambia like Livingstone, Siavonga, and Mfuwe in Luangwa Valley would be no-go areas for Africans except for hotel workers, domestic workers and comfort women. The pass-laws would have been tightened by 2014.

Now think of the worst areas in Zambia, those with the worst malaria cases, the places where tsetse and mosquitoes rule. Those would be the Bantustans where we would all be living except for the few who would be granted passes to work in the whites-only areas. In towns like Lusaka, Africans would not be living in Kabulonga with the lush green lawns, but in shanty compounds.

Granted, probably the country would have had better roads and infrastructure for the exploitation to continue, but not for long-term wealth creation and betterment of black Northern Rhodesians. On average, the living standards would have been better as the tech transfer from the Brits to their settler kith and kin would have continued.

Generally, in countries where the colonialists stayed longer, it is true that at the time of independence, these country’s overall living standards were better than most African countries that got independent earlier. These are countries like Zimbabwe, Namibia, and South Africa. But there is a long-term heavy price to be paid by the citizens. The longer the colonialists stayed, the more entrenched they became, and the more serious the psychological and physical damage to the Africans under their rule.

So, as Northern Rhodesians our GDP would have been higher in 2014, and the GDP per capita would have been higher, but at what price?

Northern Rhodesia in British hands until 2014, would not have led to happier Black Northern Rhodesians, but to surly, brutalised, unhappy, unfeeling, blood thirsty, angry, and land-hungry natives. Northern Rhodesia in 2014 would have been a soul-less, upper-middle income, slave-like satellite of the UK.

Be careful what you wish for.